Amsterdam foundation risks run deeper than estimated

Amsterdam estimates that around 117,000 homes are at risk of foundation subsidence caused by drought, with damages potentially reaching 1.9 billion euros. However, research based on satellite measurements suggests the actual scale of the problem is wider than official figures indicate.

An analysis of nearly 65,000 property sales between 2010 and 2021 by University of Amsterdam researchers found that 26% of these homes subsided by more than 1 millimetre each year.

Climate simulations project that a third will sink at this rate between 2020 and 2050, with 20% experiencing severe subsidence of over 3 millimetres annually.

Much of Amsterdam stands on soft peat and clay, supported by wooden poles that rot when dry summers lower the groundwater. Properties with shallow foundations directly on the soil face similar settling problems as ground levels fluctuate.

Valuation gaps and hidden damage

Across the country, at least 425,000 buildings require foundation work now or in the near future, according to national council figures. Repair costs can easily reach 100,000 euros per property, yet risks are rarely factored into home valuations.

The European Central Bank calculates that Dutch homes are overvalued by more than 22%, even before accounting for necessary repairs. Buyers can secure mortgages using automated valuations that evaluate risk without a certified surveyor physically visiting the building.

Legal disputes are also rising over hidden defects. Property lawyers report cases where sellers conceal cracks and say nothing about known ground subsidence before putting a home on the market.

Calls for municipal action

At an industry conference earlier this year, building experts debated whether 11,000 severely damaged homes in Amsterdam should simply be torn down rather than restored.

D66 councillor Suleyman Aslami warned that the property market risks a financial shock if the housing bubble continues to rest on decaying poles.

Aslami has pushed the city to introduce a dedicated climate label and reconsider official property tax valuations. Lowering the WOZ values of sinking homes would reduce tax income for City Hall, but proponents argue continuing to conceal the cost leaves homeowners with devastating surprises.

Source: Het Parool