For years money looked almost free. Governments, companies and homebuyers borrowed at historically low rates, while investors took on steadily more risk to find any return at all.
A new analysis from ING argues that period is now definitively finished.
Rates Are Back Where They Were Before 2008
Yields on ten year government bonds in the United States and Europe have returned to levels that were normal before the 2008 financial crisis. The American ten year sits at around 4.7%.
That is not an extreme number on its own. ING’s point is that it marks a fundamental shift rather than a spike.
What Changed
Central banks held rates exceptionally low for years to stimulate growth. After the inflation surge of 2022 they raised policy rates at record speed.
Inflation has since come down considerably, but the bank’s argument is that structurally higher capital market rates will reshape the world economy over the coming years.
For anyone in Amsterdam the practical end of that is mortgages, corporate borrowing and what a savings account is worth. A city where buying has depended on cheap debt for a decade is the kind of place where a permanent repricing shows up first.
