Upcoming capacity caps and tax increases at Schiphol Airport will significantly weaken Amsterdam’s international connectivity, according to a research report commissioned by US airline giant Delta Air Lines.
The study, conducted by American research firm Econic, estimates that an upcoming hike in the Dutch flight tax will result in 142,000 fewer American visitors to the Netherlands each year, leading to a loss of €223 million in annual spending.
Rising taxes and flight limits
In November, the Dutch government plans to cap total flights at Schiphol to 478,000 annually to curb noise pollution and carbon emissions. Shortly after, in January, the flight tax on long-haul tickets will increase from €30.25 to €70.86.
Delta works closely with Dutch carrier KLM to connect long-distance passengers through Schiphol, feeding traveler traffic into KLM’s European network while KLM routes passengers through Delta hubs in the United States.
The airline warns that combining flight reductions with rising taxes forces travelers to select alternative hubs in neighboring countries like Belgium or Germany, where aviation taxes remain significantly lower.
Re-evaluating flight routes
Historical data cited in the research shows that when the Netherlands levied a similar €45 long-haul flight tax between 2008 and 2009, US passenger traffic to Amsterdam on American carriers dropped by over 23 percent, underperforming other European destinations.
While Delta has not announced immediate schedule changes, a spokesperson noted that the company continuously evaluates route profitability, operating costs, and government policies across its international network.
The company highlighted that it could shift capacity to alternative European hubs such as Paris, where it maintains a similar partnership with Air France.
Broader airline strategy shifts
Parent group Air France-KLM has already begun seeking growth opportunities outside the Netherlands, expanding its footprint at Copenhagen Airport through a stake in Scandinavian carrier SAS.
The aviation group is also bidding to acquire a major stake in Portugal’s national airline, TAP Air, which would grant access to Lisbon’s expanding airport facilities.
As long-distance routes rely heavily on transfer passengers to remain commercially viable, losing transit volume could ultimately jeopardize direct connections serving the local Amsterdam market.
