The Netherlands and the rest of north-west Europe are heading for one of the smallest potato harvests on record.
A dry summer has left growers with fewer potatoes, and the ones that did come out of the ground are smaller than usual.
Dutch production is expected to fall by 210,000 tonnes, according to research by the British Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a loss of around 7 percent measured against the average of the past five years.
Maarten Kik, a researcher at Wageningen Economic Research, thinks that estimate is roughly right.
Spending a day working on a friend’s farm in Biddinghuizen, he put the local picture in context: “Here it is not so bad.
In some areas of Europe the yield is less than 30 tonnes per hectare, while 40 tonnes or more is normal.”
Last year’s glut set up this year’s shortage
Growers across Europe had the opposite problem last year: a surplus that pushed prices down.
Many responded by planting a smaller area this season, which is part of why the shortfall bites now. “Last year farmers really got nothing for the potatoes,” Kik said. “Only those who could store them until the start of summer still earned something.
But they also had high costs for cooling and ventilation.”
Swinging yields have pushed both farmers and buyers towards selling the crop while it is still in the field.
The drawback for growers is that the price they agreed no longer responds when scarcity arrives.
ECIU researchers calculate that Dutch farmers are losing tens of millions of euros this year as a result.
Kik is sceptical of that figure: the researchers assume 70 percent of the harvest was sold in advance, and he puts it nearer half, which leaves the rest to sell at today’s high prices. “That does not mean they are all cashing in,” he said. “The costs of fuel and irrigating the land are also considerable this year.”
What all of this means for a portion of chips is harder to call. “Given the increased costs and the scarcity, I think it is unlikely that a portion of fries gets cheaper,” Kik said. “But because the potatoes are small, there are more chips in your tray.”
If this has you craving fries, explore our guide to Dutch food in Amsterdam.